To beat Trump’s invoices, aircraft imports at a higher percentage ever

This year Air Cargo represents the largest proportion of US imports it has ever been fueled by uncertainty about President Trump’s unstoppable commercial policy.

Since December, the month after the re -election of President Trump, the imports of aircraft representing more than 30% of all US imports of five consecutive months, according to my analysis of the latest data from the US Inventory Office.

The percentages registered in these five months are among the eight highest in the last 250 months. The other three were during an equally upset period: the Covid-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020.

This time, the top, at least for the time being, seems to have been March, as Trump’s release invoices, which eventually stopped for 90 days after approaching bond markets.

The cargo rate of March car – 38.91% of all US aircraft, ocean cargo and land cargo loads – was remarkable for two reasons.

First, it was the highest percentage recorded for air load in a month, closely in May 2020 38.58%, as the Covid -9 pandemic scans the United States and the world.

Secondly, it is the only month in which the value of the aircraft exceeded the value of the ocean load.

Ocean Cargo is traditionally the dominant way of transport for all trade, including imports, value. On the part of the imports, the focus of this column, the percentage is generally over 40%.

The main advantage for the load of ocean over the aircraft is that it is less expensive. It is also the best solution for the heavier load. The main disadvantage? Speed. Although less intense, Air has the same advantages over Earth -based load.

Through the first four months of the year, Air Cargo represents a larger proportion of US imports value than Earth -based loads, which comes from Mexico and Canada, the two largest United States trade partners for total trade and imports.

It is the throat and neck with the percentage shipped by the ocean, with 37.88% ocean load and 35.61% aircraft. The land -based load, which includes trucks, railways and ducts, represents 26.51%, slightly below 2020.

Here, I deliberately use value rather than capacity, a measure generally used in both air and ocean industries, as their revenue rates are determined by weight. I do it for two reasons. First, aircraft, whether “trucks” or passenger planes carrying “abdominal load” beneath it, cannot carry anything that approaches the weight of today’s ships after Panamax. Secondly, the US Census Office does not release complete or reliable statistics on land capacity for the two largest commercial partners, Mexico and Canada, either by truck, train or pipeline.

What guidance can I offer for what it means?

Inflation

While additional demand on the aircraft could have stretched supply chains, it would not necessarily contribute to any inflation that could arise or have resulted from the global invoices announced by Trump on April 2, stopped by July 8th or other taxes. This is due to the fact that the increased percentage appears to be largely driven by the additional air -based load. The air is generally used by light and expensive loads, things such as medicinal products, mobile phones, gold chips and computer. Although it cannot add inflationary pressure directly, it could add the pressure indirectly, since imports that were “front-load” to defeat the invoices that had eventually stopped, in so many cases, should be stored in warehouses, in some cases the warehouses can be stored. The greatest for so long in international trade was to remove all the sand from the gears.

Why now?

Certainly the invoices and threats of the invoices have led to the spike at the import rate in recent months. However, the percentage of the aircraft has increased slowly for years, given the cross -border trade in expensive medicines and medical devices that previously resolve unusual diseases and diseases. Computer chips that feed a growing series of our work and play. And gold is increasingly interesting not only for Americans and Europeans, but also in the Middle East and the Asians.

Where from here?

This is difficult. We are more than 60 days in cessation of 90 -day prices in the world. This includes a basic 10% invoices for the world’s nations, most of which actually have a trade surplus, as well as higher invoices in some countries. Despite Trump’s optimism that the United States could reach agreements with the rest of the world during the 90 -day cessation, a deal has not yet been completed. Then there are the courts. They are considering Trump’s power to issue these invoices as he did, a fight that is intended to find his way to the Supreme Court. And then there is the purchase of bonds, which reacted so strongly to the April 2 announcement that Trump stopped the invoices within 24 hours. But keep in mind that Trump, like Houdini, is good in boxing and escapes.

Additional risks?

Yes. Trump is unpredictable. The explosion of March trade led to a significant fall in April, especially imports. Air Cargo was still representing more than 30% of all US imports, but was reduced to 31.47% from the record of 38.91% mentioned above. My guess is that the May data, when circulating in a few weeks, will show some additional slowdown in the percentage of US aircraft imports, more to historical standards and a comprehensive deceleration of US trade, which runs on record levels throughout the Council. What do manufacturers and importers think now, with less than a month until the end of the pause? We will not know for sure until the June data is released until early August. And there is no Trump announcement on a worldwide expansion of pause next week or so who can claim to know? You definitely bet that the bond market will keep Trump under control?

Bottom: Uncertainty extends beyond Trump invoices to the supply chain itself, when and what load it is sent how, forcing the logistics industry to return to the lessons drawn during the Covid-19 pandemic in the first term of Trump.