Donald Trump and Elon Musk arrive for a trial launch of SpaceX’s Rocket Starship on November 19, 2024, at Brownsville, Texas.
Getty pictures
In The barrier of attacks that President Donald Trump and Elon Musk shot each other on Thursday, stood out: Trump’s threat Cancellation of federal contracts with companies belonging to the richest man in the world.
The primary target: Spacex, who has received at least $ 21 billion in government contracts, with about $ 13 billion still pending.
Musk probably doesn’t have much to fear. Legally, Trump’s administration could probably be affected by long legal differences if it seemed to cancel the contracts from the show. In addition, as the global launch provider and low -end -track satellite manufacturer, SpaceX may have become necessary.
“THE [U.S. government] It is simply overly locked to cut them over a collapse of social media, “said Kimberly Siversen Burke, director of government affairs in the Quilty Counseling Affairs.
However, there are some types of contracts that could be vulnerable to the cancellation and ways in which the government could reduce its dependence on SpaceX to proceed.
In a class on its own
The 134 Rockets SpaceX started last year represented 83% of all satellites were placed in orbit world. With the reliable, partially reusable Falcon 9, the company has come to dominate the launches of US national security. Its lead competitor, United Launch Alliance, a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin, struggled to continue, with many years of delays in the development of the new Vulcan rocket.
The US government may have more options to convey its military satellites in the process of proceeding. Vulcan is now operational and blue, the space company founded by Musk’s billionaire opponent Jeff Bezos has released a successful first release of the new Glenn Rocket in January. In the last round of contracts granted by Space Force, SpaceX won 28 launches from 2027 to 2032, just over half, with ULA taking 19 and Blue Origin Seven.
But ULA and Blue Origin have their hands complete escalation, said Todd Harrison, a defense and space analyst with the American Institute of Business. “There is no replacement of Spacex. You just don’t have the ability to other launch options.”
SpaceX has also become an important supplier of national security satellites. The National Recognition Bureau depends on SpaceX to build a network of many billions of dollars with hundreds of satellite spy on low -earth -based Starshield platform.
To provide cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station, NASA also had to rely on SpaceX, as Boeing struggled to correct defects on its spacecraft.
But there are some of the small dollars of space contracts that could be vulnerable, Burke said. The government could reduce its exposure to SpaceX by looking for early phase development programs that have not yet been locked.
For example, SpaceX has earned about $ 140 million in Air Force contracts to check on whether commercial satellite services can be integrated into regular military communications, Burke said.
Another way in which Trump could harm Musk, as well as Ukraine, would be to cancel or reduce a $ 537 million contract to provide Starlink satellite communications services to the Ukrainian army.
But instead of targeting existing contracts, where the administration could have a greater impact is the guidance of the new business to others and the reorientation of its plans. Commerce Department could return to a review announced In March in a $ 42 billion program to expand broadband access to agricultural broadband access, which was expected to make Starlink eligible to compete for grants. So far the program has included only telecommunications companies that put fiber optic cables.
Trump could also pull behind the support he promised his inaugural address for Musk’s final ambition: to reach Mars. “Where Trump can hurt SpaceX in a significant way is to redirect the mission goals for NASA,” Harrison said.
Given the way Mercurial Musk has been proven, perhaps the differentiation of Spacex is not a bad idea. Burke is worried, however, that bad blood will overthrow the years of work to persuade the Pentagon and other national security organizations that can be based on any commercial companies. “Elon’s anxieties threaten to turn the film,” he said.
More than Forbes
