Illustration of an asteroid the passage of the moon as it approaches the earth. Asteroids near the earth are … more
In the pantheon of the stories of apocalyptic science fiction, the destructive effect of asteroids is a well -known trophy. Another interesting variant includes a conflict with a moon that collides (or dissolves and collides) with a inhabited world that resembles the earth.
Earlier this year, the 2024 -year -old asteroid seemed to have a small but non -zero opportunity to break on our planet. The space rock is not big enough to make a planet, but it could waste in a very unlucky city. Fortunately, by the end of February, the new observations of the object made it clear that it had not posed any real threat to us.
However, the latest observations from the James Webb Space Telescope revealed that 2024 YR4 is even greater than previously estimated (about the size of a 10 -story building) and also increased the chances of affecting the moon on December 22, 2032.
Using webb observations and other telescopes, scientists from the Center for object studies near Earth at NASA’s JET promotion laboratory increased the chances of a lunar explosion from 1.7%in late February to 3.8%.
Graphic of potential positions – represented by yellow spots – of asteroid 2024 years on December 22, … more
Different risks asteroids for the moon
“There is still 96.2% chance that asteroid will lose the moon”, NASA assures a statement. “With the low probability of an asteroid affecting, it would not change the moon’s orbit.”
This asteroid, despite being enough enough to damage the ground in the event of impact, is unlikely to send any debris from the moon to a collision course with the earth. Much more energy would be needed to overcome the The velocity of the moon’s escapeAlthough it is only about one fifth of the earth.
However, the impact on the Moon could be more annoying to possible businesses on or around the moon, which could start by 2032.
A depiction of an ARTEMIS MOON mission.
NASA’s Artemis program is currently aiming to create a human presence on the surface of the moon and in the Cislunar area in the coming years and before the possibilities (but unlikely) impact.
“If the asteroid impact on the moon, the Earth-Figari system could be blurred with particles detached from the moon and asteroids, possibly threatening human infrastructure and businesses,” explains Helsinki University professor Karri.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 quickly moves very far from Earth for most observatories on the ground to observe, but Webb is scheduled to take one last look in a few weeks.
Astronomers will be able to take another careful look at the asteroid during his next fly from Earth in 2028.
