Kiev’s drone diplomacy makes Ukraine a force in global geopolitics

Having turned things upside down on the battlefield and changed the nature of modern warfare in the process, Ukraine is now set to transform the world in yet another leap forward – by becoming a geopolitical power. So far, most countries that have cooperated with Ukraine have done so as support providers. That they did so on a drip feed, often too slowly, forced Kiev to develop its own initiatives for survival. This habit of forced self-sufficiency has now allowed it to move from defense to offense on multiple fronts, including in the sphere of geopolitical influence—an area in which no one thought it could compete with Russia. Until now.

Here are some cases: most recently Kiev offered to help Moldova militarily contain the threat of Moscow’s client enclave, Transnistria, with troops and advisers and expertise. This is a particularly clever play – on multiple symbolic and practical levels. It counters Russia’s moves on a wider chessboard that will affect Ukraine – in this case the Kremlin’s attempt to bully Europe from its eastern flank into stopping aid to Ukraine. It proves to European countries that Ukraine will defend Europe from direct threats, even if the EU can’t or won’t, by making direct deals with member states. It averts the threat of imminent political upheaval in neighboring Romania, where a pro-Moscow populist looks likely to win office in the next election. It bypasses all the red tape of Ukraine joining the EU or NATO by simply reversing the process and placing Ukrainian troops in Europe.

A similar agreement is currently being discussed between the US military and Ukraine. While the White House appears determined to stop providing aid to Ukraine to defend itself, the Pentagon is taking a more demanding practical position. Armed service chiefs know they are well behind in the techniques of modern drone warfare and the resulting lower-cost revolution. This applies not only to basic UAV technology, but to all related technology, AI-enabled automation, drone engagement and engagement, aerial surveillance, naval and robotic ground drone technology, and the like. A functional cooperation of this kind in areas so central to future planning would once again place the US military in direct symbiosis with Ukraine’s military, quietly bypassing political headwinds higher up.

But there is another factor: the risk that cheaper, faster, less conditional aid from Ukraine could displace or reduce America’s lucrative arms deals with the Gulf, worth more than $100 billion over the past decade. Kiev’s new alliances there put it in a position to set counter-conditions to the Pentagon’s offer. Here, again, Ukraine’s drone ministry in other countries gives it geopolitical influence around the world.

In the Gulf and Saudi Arabia, the shock of vulnerability to the Shaheds and Iran’s missiles has opened a door to Kiev’s military presence. The damage done by Iran, aided by Russia and China, was widespread enough – despite the expensive defense provided by the US – to threaten the entire Gulf economic model for the foreseeable future. Ukraine’s involvement provides expertise not only defensively against the Shaheds, but an affordable counter-threat of massive waves of precision strikes against Iranian targets.

Another fundamental innovation, which no one has yet considered in the future of warfare, is that Ukraine has adapted the use of drones to essentially replace the need for boots on the ground – effectively drone warfare instead of ground warfare. We have seen this applied in many ways, such as targeting soldiers in trenches, tree lines, houses, cars and many other places where until now ground troops were needed for the job. In fact, the old house-to-house fighting or even the practice of street patrolling will no longer be necessary.

This particular discovery would crucially change the US military’s impasse in Iran, for example, where they failed to pressure the regime after massive devastation from aerial bombardment because the next step would require an invasion. In fact, it is Israel’s equivalent of mass extermination of Hezbollah elements in Lebanon via their cell phones. Except this is not a single coup, but a strategy of a sustained campaign – one that would overcome Washington’s paralysis in confronting the Iranian regime.

The principle of the US military in the region does not apply only to Iran. Recent reports indicate that many of the missiles that hit Gulf facilities came from pro-Iranian elements inside Iraq. The perpetrators melted into city streets or garages. Mobile or small cluster targets hiding in populated areas are much better dealt with by drones, causing minimal damage to the environment, especially when it comes to a nominally friendly country like Iraq.

Above all, the presence of the Ukrainian Gulf means it can reach across continents to neutralize Moscow’s international strategic depth by striking directly at Iran, Russia’s staunchest partner in the war against Ukraine. In the Baltics and Taiwan, similar agreements with Ukraine are underway.

Russia’s sheer size, stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the North Pole to the Middle East, means it can bring allies from one end of the world to conflicts on the other. North Korean troops, for example, or war material from China, for use in Ukraine. Moscow is waging a global war, even if Western countries do not recognize it. Ukraine is the only country that faces the challenge head-on. Ukraine’s global drone diplomacy allows it to orchestrate its strategic needs in ways previously reserved for superpowers.