Disastrous floods in Texas – were there warnings?

The devastating flood has destroyed an area that is not foreign to these events. Media reports confirm multiple deaths. Many people are still missing, including 20 girls in a summer camp along the Guadalupe River. Many people were asking if this “came out of nowhere” and if there were warnings. Here is my perspective as a meteorologist.

Meteorologist James Spann posted On his Facebook page, “many have asked about flood warnings in Central Texas responsible for deaths over two dozen people late Friday night until Saturday morning … the warnings were issued by NWS Austin and they seemed to be right and right.” I want to further investigate this, but it is crucial for readers to understand that a complete review will take place later. My analysis here is just a “first look”, given rumors, accusations and “social mediators out there.

The Austin/San Antonio National Meteorological Service issued a flood warning at 1:14 AM CDT for Bandera and Kerr counties, respectively. They made statements such as “life -threatening floods by creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, roads and underground crossings”. This warning also defines specific areas such as Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, Waltonia, the Kerr Wildlife Management area and Lost Maples State Natural.

At 5:34 am On Friday morning, NWS issued an emergency flood for much of the area. The warning said: “Automated rainfalls indicate a large and deadly flood wave moves under the Guadalupe River.” NWS communication urged people to look for higher ground.

This is a difficult situation because many of these warnings happen in the middle of the night. What is the NWS that leads to these events. I returned to a discussion of the NWS issued on Thursday afternoon because many things hit my meteorological eye. These I wrote“An important tower of deep tropical humidity continues to flow north to southern-centered Texas, which is characterized by unusual wet values ​​of water paid as high as about 2.4 inches … 12z del rio upper air that sounds this
In the morning he noticed a 2.31 inches PW, which is close to the daily record high prices. “The discussion continued to say:” The axis of a negative average level of the lower level more easily visible to 700MB analyzes begins to move with the Evancing Trough Plateau, leading to shower rounds throughout the southern central Texas in Tomorrow as the Advancial Trough Tructs. Vortex was also a key player in this event.

Let me decipher some of the meteorological terminology. Doomed water It is a measure of atmospheric humidity. It is the equivalent depth of the water to be measured if condensed and precipitated by a column of the atmosphere, according to the NWS. As meteorologists, we are always alert at extremely high prices because they show a lot of humidity. THE Mcv And the presence of the threshold marked the presence of other components required -a catering mechanism and the increase in movement. NWS forecasts also knew these signs. These I wrote On Thursday afternoon, “Rainfall sets from 1 to 3 inches seem likely, but locally higher amounts over 5 to 7 inches could be implemented if the slow thunderstorms begin to accumulate …

I decided to get an even greater view. Noaa’s weather forecast center issues a day of 3 to 7 American weather hazards. If you look at the risk map issued on June 30, which is several days ahead of the flood event, an intense rain area is foreseen for July 3. It is clear to me that NWS forecasts dug this potential 4 or more days before the destruction.

Balanced weather Meteorologist Alan Gerard also discussed other aspects of this flood event. In his own blogsaid, “Central Texas hills country are known as”Flash flood alley“Due to the high frequency of high flash floods, the area is particularly vulnerable to large floods due to the frequency of intense thunderstorms that can produce extreme rates of rainfall in the air of the liquid vagina in combination with the ground that favors the rapid runoff.”

It is interesting in 2023 study It was published in natural risks examined by over 6000 flood events in Flaod Flood Alley from 2005 to 2019, found that deaths and injuries were amazingly rare (2%appearance). They considered environmental (topography, soil type, land use), climatic (rainfall characteristics) and status agents (activities, timing, location) to provide a predictive model. They found that the activities associated with the vehicle were the strongest indicator of possible damage. L Strong effect on the probability of damage. The proximity to low water and flood flash has also increased. Finally, night events as they were also dangerous.

This is a tragic event. I have this pit in my stomach as a meteorologist because events like this represent a worse scenarios in convergence of the factors examined in the study. Meteorology Professor Jordan McLeod also pointed out that this event happened in the context of drought. Why does this matter? Floods are not just a function of what falls from the sky. Earth coverage is important. McLeod, who works at the University of South Alabama, assumes that the landscape that hit drought will accelerate the runoff in streams and rivers in a way similar to paved surfaces.

Time will reveal the players they play, but this is another example of union, extreme weather events that have significant social impacts. Although I conclude that there were sufficient meteorological warnings, the results depict well -known challenges with the prediction and communication of extreme events:

1. Message Night Exchange events. It is important to have a “night plan” and an awareness awareness before you go to bed.
2. Happiness risk transfer associated with rainfall events. Our models and know -how can overcome widespread parameters, but the exact location and timetable of moisture, training (quasi -rain cells) and the coercion mechanism can be difficult.
3. Did people get the information and how were they consumed? Even if the information is out there, there is a wide range of consumption patterns. Some people may not see any information at all. Others may receive information and make calculated dangers based on circumstances or etiology. Such questions are at the heart of social science research in meteorology.

I will close with it an important point. The NWS issued critical warnings during the night hours as this unfolded. The weather and its risks are 24/7, so we need to ensure that our NWS offices are fully staffed 24/7.