Dan Duffy comes out of his tractor earlier this year while planting soybeans on land exploiting with his … more
The seven years of invoices for Chinese imports have led to retaliation and reduce US exports to China, which are conservatives worth $ 160 billion and up to 201 billion dollars, based on my analysis of US census office data.
The analysis reveals the goods that have failed to recover and could be useful to better understand how the world’s second -largest economy and the third largest trading partner in the United States will respond to a scalable trade war.
Since 2018, when President Trump initially imposed invoices on China, until 2024, when former President Joe Biden abandoned the office, having largely left these invoices in place, US exports to China increased by 10.42%.
At the same time, US exports to the world increased by 33.44%. If US exports to China had maintained the pace with a total average of 33.44%, this would result in an additional $ 159.92 billion in exports to China.
US exports to China increased faster than average with the world in two seven -year periods … more
There is a good reason to believe that they would have done it – or better.
During the seven-year period before the trade war, 2010-2017, the increase in US exports to China was almost twice that of the United States with the world, a 41.44% increase compared to the US average with the world of 21.02%.
It had the US exports to China to be maintained at this rate, additional exports would have amounted to $ 201.50 billion.
I looked at US exports that fell more and increased more over the course of seven years, invoices have come into force for indications of what to expect if the United States and China continue to escalate the trade war rather than escalating it or simply leave it in place.
I also looked at the capacity, although these elements do not affect the trade deficit, in which Trump’s administration remains strongly focused and not just on it with China.
A word for imports from China
Before reaching these US exports, it is worth noting that US imports from China “lost” in the trade war have declined much more than exports over the last seven years, up to $ 772.90 billion.
Because of this, some could describe the decline in US exports to China during the trade war, using a term often used during the war: “side damage”.
Others suggest that the decline is not as sharp as it seems that the Chinese are handling the “country of origin”. This is a case that is supported, if not proven, with increases in US imports from Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and other countries corresponding to reductions in specific goods from China.
But because of this abrupt reduction in US imports, at least according to official US government data, China has fallen from being the United States’s top trade partner in No. 3 behind Mexico and Canada. He fell to the second behind Mexico for US imports, which he had dominated in the past. And he saw the US deficit with China falling from about five times larger than with any other nation to just 50% larger than Mexico. There is no doubt that China felt the impact.
US trade continues to grow
However, US trade continued to grow, even when trade with China fell, filling in a $ 5.33 trillion record in 2024.
Imports of the US have continued to grow, even when they collapsed with China, covering $ 3.27 trillion.
And the US deficit with the world has continued to swell, increasing six of the last eight years, covering $ 1.20 trillion in 2024.
While it is difficult to have confidence in US imports from China, it is not difficult to have confidence in US exports to China.
Exports to China that have not recovered
US soy exports to China – which buys the majority of these US exports and was an early and particularly visible symbol of the trade war that started in 2018 – decreased by $ 1.12 billion in the first quarter of this year since the first quarter of 2017 before the trade began. This reduction of 33.97% is greater than twice as much decrease in total US soy exports, 16.93%.
Passenger exports to China are reduced by 76.54% compared to the same three months of 2017, equivalent to $ 1.80 billion. US passenger vehicles in the world are actually increased by $ 7.37%or $ 948.80 million this year.
Like passenger vehicles and soybeans, the other eight exports that fell more from the first trimester of 2017 to the first quarter of this year – a “down 10” and not a “Top 10”, if you will downgrade the US average.
Petroleum missions to China decrease by 25.61% while US exports have increased by 518.64%. China, of course, buys oil from Russia, allowing it to continue invading Ukraine, which the United States spends billions to defend, along with European nations.
Those who recycle or consider that they are at least environmentally aware could remind you that in the early days of the trade war, China abandoned the acceptance of scraps and paper.
You can see it in the data.
The value of exporting aluminum waste and waste exported to China is reduced by 85.93% from 2017, while US exports have increased by 29.61%. Exports of paper and paper are reduced by 99.56% to China, 30.51% to the rest of the world. Exports of fragments and steel decreased by 99.41% while exports to the world increased by 28.53%.
Exports to China growing
There are, of course, the winners, goods that have increased since the first quarter of 2017, which allowed us to export to 8.18%in total. (The increase occurred during Biden’s administration, which was just as strong in politics only less than Voval, the first quarter for 2025, with Trump back to the office, is the lowest number by 2020.)
Political aircraft and parties increased by 97.88% at that time, far more than average 27.57% of the US with the world in this time. This is an increase of $ 2.4 billion in the first quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2017. Many of them seem to be parts and not a flight ready, although the inventory data is not clear.
As was the case in the aviation category, China exceeded the US average with six others and in the first 10, making it possible to increase total exports despite the performance of the delay.
Three are in the field of healthcare: the category of vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions. Medicines in individual doses, which include a number of heart, diabetic and anti-depressing drugs and are one of the largest such categories. and medical media, which can range from syringes to expensive and large imaging machines.
The first, the category of vaccines, increased by 537.14%, compared to the US growth with the world of 180.54%. The second, medicines, increased by 128.01% compared to 72.72% for the United States as a whole. Finally, medical media increased slightly more than the national average, 36.80% to 36.65%.
All of the above can be interpreted loosely to contain advanced technology. In the category of computer chip, there would be no doubt. These US exports tochina have increased by 143.02% compared to the US average 47.06%.
The category including LNG and a wide category of plastics increased both, 147.91% and 95.13% respectively, but the averages of the US increased more, 271.18% and 110.19% respectively.
Finally, at first glance, the Chinese seem to have no beef with beef, which is delivered frozen, given the distance traveled.
This category has increased by 1.9 million percent, while the US average is an increase of 88.14%. What does the huge profit rate represent? The whole first quarter of 2017 was a minor $ 15,232.
Bottom: The trade war with China, now in its eighth year and turning forward and back between escalation and escalation, hit Chinese imports hard, but did not reduce the US trade deficit and harmed US-US exports.
