The biggest AI trends of the last 10 years
While I enjoy writing about future predictions for the tech and business worlds, I usually focus on what will happen in the next five years.
That’s because the companies I advise on data and technology strategy want to know what they need to do now – or very soon – to take advantage of the opportunities of digital transformation.
But it is also worth a longer viewing. I believe that in 10 years, artificial intelligence that is part of everyday life will have evolved as much from today’s artificial intelligence as today’s internet has from the early days of the internet.
In his excellent book The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleiman notes that each wave of technology-based change – from the internal combustion engine to the Internet – has revolutionized society in a shorter period of time than the previous wave. So I don’t think we will have to wait 30 or even 20 years until AI is completely embedded in all aspects of life.
Instead, let’s look ahead just 10 years to 2034. Halfway through the next decade, a lot will have changed, but what will artificial intelligence look like? Here’s what I think!
Is Quest For AGI over?
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is one of the holy grail goals of AI development.
It specifically refers to powerful AIs who are able to learn to do any job simply by being told what to do rather than how to do it. This is contrary to most narrow AI of today, which is specialized – designed to learn and improve in a particular job or field of work.
Today’s multimodal foundation models—such as GPT-4—seem to be approaching AGI capabilities with their broad applications. But by 2034, we may have reached what we now consider “true” AGI. This does not necessarily mean that we will produce sentient robots or computers like we have seen in science fiction, but that we will enhance current AI systems to work more intelligently and autonomously in everyday tasks.
This means that AI will be even more intuitive and effective in helping us at work and at home, and will be able to understand and perform tasks in ways we may never have imagined.
However, achieving AGI also raises ethical concerns. Although this does not mean that artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence (it is uniqueness, a separate event), we will still need to take steps to ensure that everything he does is in our best interest. And there should be safeguards for times when her own ideas of what that means might be different from ours.
Quantum AI
By 2034, it is very likely that the fusion of quantum computing and artificial intelligence will have ushered in a new era of supercomputers and scientific breakthroughs.
Quantum computing has the potential to significantly speed up some of the calculations used in artificial intelligence algorithms, for example, quickly solving optimization problems that would take much longer using classical computers.
This has already led to progress drug discovery and material sciences, as well as the efficiency of route planning by delivery companies such as DHL. Within 10 years, accessibility to quantum computing technology will have increased dramatically, meaning many more discoveries and efficiencies are likely to have been made.
The emergence of quantum computers is also likely to pose significant challenges to society, and by 2024, these could be hot topics. In particular, there are concerns about what super-powerful computers with augmented artificial intelligence will mean for security and encryption. Some predict that their sheer power means our ability to keep information private could essentially disappear. Hopefully society will have found some strong solutions to these problems by 2034!
AI-Powered Superhumans
Today, we talk about being able to augment our capabilities with artificial intelligence, but by 2034, has this evolved to the point where we’re all basically superhuman?
Artificial intelligence is applied to neural network technology of the type that already exists tested on humans it could, in theory, enhance our cognitive abilities, making us better at learning, recalling information, and even making decisions.
Advances in AI-augmented prosthetics could give us mechanical limbs or exoskeletons, making us much stronger and more physically capable than we are today. Camera and optical implants could improve our vision and make age-related vision loss a thing of the past. And tools that give us insights into human-to-human behaviors and interactions could help increase our empathy and emotional intelligence, allowing us to better understand each other.
An important safeguard, however, will be to ensure that these do not only benefit the elites. There is already an opening in society between the technological haves and have-nots. Developing ways to ensure that this technology benefits as many people as possible, and not just those with the most money or living in the most advanced nations, will be a major challenge for the next 10 years.
Robots, co-bots and automated friends
In recent years, great advances have been made in robotics, thanks to the application of artificial intelligence to problems such as balance and human proximity.
So by 2034, it might seem reasonable to believe that mechanical companions will be all around us. Collaborative robots (co-bots) will have moved away from the industrial settings found today and into our homes, offices, amenities and public spaces. We’ll rely on them for help with the housework as well as companionship and support, and we’ll put our lives in their hands if we end up on the operating table.
Robots will easily handle all types of manual tasks, from deliveries to road repairs and construction. And in parts of the world with aging populations, they will play an important role in providing care and safety for us in our homes. Embedded in natural language technology, they will talk to us, learn about us and develop their own personality. This could lead to us building relationships with them in a very different way than we did with other technologies.
A decade from now, their integration into society could be one of the most important issues facing society. How much autonomy is it safe to give them? And are there moral lines we must not cross when it comes to treating intelligent entities – even those we have created ourselves – as laboring machines and property?
AI in government and law enforcement
By 2034, AI may be firmly entrenched in the infrastructure used to manage public affairs and justice systems. Does this mean we will have an AI prime minister who will provide better leadership than a human? Well, depending on your political views, you might argue that it couldn’t be worse. But I don’t think we’ll be ready for AI government in 10 years.
Instead, what I believe we will have is a much deeper integration of smart government technology into administration. This will streamline processes from managing waste collection routes to issuing licenses and permits, making decisions on urban planning issues and ensuring that services are delivered in a way that is valuable and personalized for each citizen.
Those involved in legislation and policy making will use AI to understand what the public wants and set their priorities from there. It will proactively predict issues that are likely to be of concern in the future so that steps can be taken to eliminate them in the first place. Similarly, the police will routinely use predictive technology to predict where crime is likely to occur and even who is likely to offend. These capabilities will be an important part of the conversation in 2034 as we find ourselves increasingly under surveillance by government and law enforcement technology and it becomes increasingly difficult to avoid leaving a digital footprint wherever you go.