I made a list of ten tech predictions for 2023 in a Forbes article I wrote in December 2022. And here we are now in December 2023. So how did these predictions come about – covering artificial intelligence, space, hypersonics and Quantum Computers?
Let’s break down where we stand with each of the views.
Getty
AI and LLM 10x bigger than GPT-3 going mainstream.
Huawei’s PanGu-S is about 10 times larger than GPT-3. And interestingly, it was trained on Huawei Ascend processors. The size of GPT-4 is unknown, but it is likely a mixture of experts (MoE) model consisting of an unknown number of large models. So we definitely have a 10X model and we also have a base model that MoE usage could easily be 10x larger, even if individual models in the MoE set are GPT-3 size. An interesting document describes Huawei’s work that you can view here.
Introducing IBM’s Condor Quantum Computer with 1000 qubits.
While IBM made significant advances in quantum computing in 2023, it did not launch a 1000-qubit computer. Instead, they introduced the IBM Quantum System Two with three IBM Heron processors, which are high-performance quantum processors with significantly improved error rates. Each Heron processor provides 133 qubits. IBM’s focus has shifted to error correction rather than raw size.
Development of self-hosted and decentralized IT systems.
This has largely been the case, with the #homelab trend gathering significant steam and problems with mainstream social networks leading to massive user growth on decentralized social networks. Moreover, near the end of 2023, the decentralized blockchain ecosystem gathered steam again.
Rise of other EV makers alongside Tesla.
Tesla maintained its lead as the world’s largest electric vehicle maker, but Chinese manufacturer BYD is closing in fast, now just a few percentage points behind. This has happened and is a trend that will gain further momentum in the coming months. Tesla has decided to face the competition by engaging in a price war, but it remains to be seen who will ultimately win this war a few years down the line, with Chinese companies having an inherent advantage in low-cost manufacturing.
The first tourist trip around the moon by SpaceX.
SpaceX has made tremendous progress throughout this year, as has the rest of the Space 2.0 industry. But the first tourist trip to the moon has not yet taken off! From all the public domain information I have access to, it certainly seems close, but with no specific release date announced, I’d say this is a prediction that didn’t turn out to be accurate.
Launch of China’s first space telescope, CSST.
The Chinese space agency announced that Xuntian, China’s first space telescope, will be launched sometime in 2025 from China’s Wenchang Space Launch Center. We missed the timing on this one!
End of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The war is not over, but it has lessened in intensity and perhaps ended in all but name. After the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive, there is a clear stalemate, a decline in global interest and a move towards negotiations. Now, nearly half of Ukrainians appear open to compromises with Russia to end the war, according to a Ukrainian polling firm, Rating. You can read more about it here.
Progress on the Metaverse vision.
Away from the 2022 spotlight, real progress has been made this year. Siemens invested €500 million in industrial conversion efforts, while leading consumer brands such as Adidas, Coach and D&G were at Metaverse Fashion Week earlier this year. The Digital Twins are moving full speed ahead, and the launch of Apple’s Vision Pro was an important first step in Apple’s commitment to making this vision a reality. The metaverse hasn’t had the best press since Facebook’s botched launch, but it’s an inevitable technology that’s sure to materialize.
Tests of the first supersonic aircraft.
US aerospace company Hermeus was awarded a DIU contract earlier this year and has now begun testing the US Quarterhorse MK0 Hypersonic aircraft. This is an exciting development that closely parallels other parts of the world, particularly China. You can read more about Hermeus’ Quarterhorse here.
Back to the office after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy captured the trend directly when addressing workers who don’t want to go back to the office: “It probably won’t work.” According to Fortune magazine, “work-from-home rates have fallen to a low of 26% . . . as employers make the return to the office their north star.” We are not in a future where most people will work from home. And the results from our last foray into the COVID era were decidedly quite mixed.
I will soon be posting my predictions for 2024. I hope you stick around to read and comment.
Happy Holidays!
