Is the US a safe third country for refugees? Some Canadians ask this query in Federal … more
When Canada signed the safe third country agreement (STCA) with the United States in 2004, it was widely regarded as a rational policy. The agreement, which is in force today, requires refugee applicants to seek asylum in the first “safe” country that is formally arriving in the United States. Due to this Agreement, most people arriving at the Canadian border from the US, either at the intersection of border or through irregular intersections, such as Roxham Road, are not eligible to make a claim for refugees in Canada, unless they meet close exceptions.
Is America secure under Stca?
But the assumption of American “security” is now under renewed control. Ironically, the good intentions of those who support the abolition of STCA in the Canadian courts on the grounds that the US no longer meets the legal limit of a “safe” country could lead to Canada by the requirements that are inappropriate to meet. The start of Donald Trump’s mass expulsions could Once again open a new humanitarian and logistical crisis On the southern border of Canada. The more extreme actions of President Trump, the more likely the Stca will be to collapse from the courts and the more reasonable the possibility that Canada could be shocked by the escape from immigrants from America.
A fragile institution
Human rights groups and immigration supporters in Canada argue that US asylum protections have worsened dramatically. They report US policies such as the illegal deportations of Venezuelan immigrants to El Salvador, his arrest Students complain The events in Gaza, the “Remain in Mexico” policy, summary expulsions of immigrantsand the rise of detention without proper procedure as reasons for their concerns. However, Canada still considers the US as a safe refuge for refugee applicants. This, despite the fact that Canada did not publicly reveal the annual revisions of US asylum practices since 2009. While it is true, there is no official requirement for the federal government to make these public reviews, it still does not do so.
This said, the cracks in this institution are now becoming even more visible. As Trump follows its commitment to deport all 11 million immigrants without documents, it is increasingly apparent that the effort will require the use of military -type raids, extensive detention camps and huge removals. With every step, the US is no longer a practical refuge for those who leave violence or prosecution. The stronger the deportation efforts, the more likely the result is that most immigrants without documents will look north, seeing Canada as the last refuge.
The boundaries of Canada
Until now, Canada has benefited from its geographical isolation. This has served as a natural obstacle to mass migrations inward. With the change in the US, the image of Canada as a hospitable country is increasingly in contrast to the reality of Canada’s absorbent capacity. A sudden, unruly influx of tens of thousands of refugees leaving the deportation of the United States could crush Canadian institutions.
Design for what comes
Canada plans to admit 385,000 immigrants as permanent residents this year. Under Canada Immigration levels A plan for 2025, the target for refugees, protected persons and people who were accepted in humanitarian and compassionate words are set at 68,350. This number includes both re -established refugees and successful asylum seekers. This is what happened if they say, even 100,000 more people tried to cross the border after an American increase in repression in unauthorized immigrants?
It is not difficult to predict the result. In terms of housing, cities like Toronto and Vancouver are already facing housing shortages, with thousands waiting for affordable housing. The camps have become a visible part of the urban landscape – an emergency could make them a permanent accessory. In health care, Canadian hospitals face record hours. An influx of newcomers, many of whom have non -lawsuit health problems, could further reconcile services. In terms of education and social services, school councils will fight to accommodate children who face trauma, linguistic obstacles and different learning needs. Food banks, shelters and social workers are already operating in capacity.
The legal catch-22 about STCA
Legally, Canada is in a commitment. The STCA was confirmed by the Supreme Court in 2023, but the judges sent the case to the federal court to assess whether the agreement violates equality rights in accordance with Article 15 of the Charter. The current challenge, started by the defense organizations, argues that the continued dependence of Canada on STCA – without a current, transparent security assessment is unconstitutional. The main paradox remains: If the US is really safe, then the deportations of the Trump era should not be admissible to Canada. But if the US is not safe, then the continuing rejection of applicants by Canada can violate its domestic and international legal obligations. Canada cannot have both ways.
Most will not meet the conditions
Despite fears of a massive migration to the north, most US -free immigrants do not meet Canada’s legal definition for a refugee. The expulsion, though unpleasant, is not the prosecution itself. Unless applicants can prove to be a valid fear of prosecution in their country of origin, they are unlikely to succeed in the Canadian Asylum system. While some may have valid claims based on new risks or exacerbate conditions in their countries of origin, the number that is suitable for staying would only be a fraction of those that could do so. Canada’s wider migration programs – such as explicit and provincial candidate programs, education, specialized work experience, linguistic competence and financial resources, which have significant obstacles for most immigrants without documents. However, it is important to note that two -thirds of 11 million immigrants without documents in the US, ie 7 million, were here for over 10 years. Given this, many of these immigrants may have accumulated sufficient resources to allow them to seek refuge in Canada.
Political Fall of Stca
If Stca is abolished and asylum seekers increase, the political consequences in Canada could be serious. A country proud of its humanitarian values could see its social cohesion. As the services are stretched and the housing crisis is deepening, public support for immigration could be corroded. The populist invitations for stricter border control and reduced levels of immigration could gain attraction, provocative decades of liberal consensus. What was once a dark bilateral treaty could become the most subsequent part of Canada’s immigration policy.
Conclusion: Time for realism
The abolition of the third country’s safe agreement with America without preparing for its consequences would be reckless. However, maintaining it without a real reassessment is equally unfounded. Canada must support the prospect itself that the United States can no longer be reliable associates in protecting refugees. Two basic estimates arise. First, what specific actions will President Trump take in the coming months on immigration to the United States? Will he intensify his current efforts, or the courts and their opposition to his initiatives will stop the tide? Secondly, how long will it take this issue for the Canada Supreme Court? It remains time to plan and prepare for what is in front. However, Canada must also maintain a clear eyes perspective on what can reasonably absorb. The path forward will require not only compassion but also prudence – and a steady perception of the boundaries of what even a generous nation can achieve.
