Patchogue, NY: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul speaks during a press event where she … [+]
The 2023 state election was a disappointment for Republicans. In Virginia, Democrats took control of the House of Representatives since it already controlled the Senate. In Kentucky, Republicans hoped to recapture the governor’s mansion, but incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Besiers traveled to a second term. In 2024, 11 governor’s mansions are up for grabs, including games predicted to be tight in North Carolina and New Hampshire. Republicans will need support from young voters to win, and embracing a pro-housing agenda can help them achieve that.
Percentage of voters under 30 who say they plan to vote Republican fell from around 40% in 2022 to around 35% today. This isn’t great for Republicans, but it could be worse. In the UK, only around 5% of voters under the age of 30 intend to vote for the Conservative party, up from 20% in just 2020.
The decline in support for the UK and US Conservative parties contrasts with the recent increase in support for the Conservatives in Canada. Since the start of 2023, Conservative support among young voters in Canada has risen from about 28% to 40%. Many attribute this surge in support to Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre’s embrace of pro-housing policies.
The central part of Poilievre’s plan is to federal funding for local governments for housing begins. Local governments that fail to meet their targets will lose funding, while those that exceed their targets will receive bonuses. This would incentivize local governments to reform their regulations to allow more housing.
Canada desperately needs more housing. The average price of his house has climbed to $656,625. In the high-demand cities of Vancouver and Toronto, the median home price is $1.3 million and $1.1 million, respectively. ONE study from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development reports that house prices in Canada grew more than twice as fast as incomes from 2000 to 2022. First home buyers, who tend to be younger, are hit hardest by high home prices, which explains enthusiasm for Poilievre’s plan to boost supply.
Home prices in many US states are also rising rapidly. From 2015 to 2022, US home prices grew 35% faster of incomes, slightly less than Canada’s 38%. Nationally, the ratio of the median home price to the median family income is 4.3, meaning the average home costs 4.3 times the annual median income. Most experts consider a ratio over four to be a sign that housing is unaffordable. In the top five most expensive cities the ratio is 6.7 or higher, as shown in the figure below.
The median home sales price to median household income in selected US cities.
If Republicans want to win the support of younger voters, they should take a page from Poilievre’s playbook and become the pro-housing party. ONE recent poll Of Americans 46 and younger, they found that 45% blamed state and local governments for high housing prices, while 70% said the government is not doing a good job of making housing more affordable.
It is well established that local zoning laws and land use regulations increase the price of housing by restricting supply, so younger voters are right to blame government policy for high housing costs. Some state politicians from both major parties have gotten the message and are reforming these burdensome rules to make it easier to build homes. In 2023, both red Montana and blue Washington passed major reforms to make it easier to build more homes, including legalizing accessory homes, allowing homes to be built in commercial zones, and allowing two- and three-bedrooms in most neighborhoods. In a swing state with a gubernatorial race in 2024 like North Carolina, the party that embraces similar housing reforms will gain an early advantage among young voters that could be the difference between victory and defeat.
Abraham Maslow’s famous hierarchy of needs believes that people have certain basic needs that must be met before they can focus on higher-order aspirations, such as raising a family or achieving career success. One of those needs is housing. Today, in too many parts of America, housing is out of reach for young people of modest means who aspire to join the middle class. The major party that sympathizes with their plight and commits to doing something about it will be rewarded on election day.
