Tajikistan is charting a course for the future

Readers of this column know that Central Asia has been in the spotlight especially in recent years. The region gained added importance with the end of the Afghan war freeing up the direction neighboring countries could take in the future. Strategically, economically and culturally it matters which direction the ‘Stans’ take because of the implications for the rest of the world, especially nearby powers like Russia, China and India. To this end, columns were devoted to pan-Turkish cultural/political harmonization of countries from Turkey and Azerbaijan through Turkmenistan to Kyrgyzstan. As a trading bloc, if fully successful, they would constitute a new counterweight to the neighborhood’s superpowers.

What is rarely mentioned in such geopolitical assessments is Tajikistan that doesn’t fit into obvious alignments or predictable routes. This column is about the country and its prospects. First, Tajiks do not align with the pan-Turkic image because their language and dominant culture come from the Persian-Iranian side of Silk Road history. The greater region has oscillated between the Turko-Mongol and Persian empires back and forth over the centuries until Moscow consolidated its rule in the 1800s. Then the Soviets, as with many empires, distributed borders according to their own arbitrary needs and so ethnic populations were caught in other republics, leaving the region prone to post-Soviet unrest. Tajikistan shares a border with Afghanistan for nearly 850 miles. Not surprisingly, radical Islamist violence has been a recurring feature. This, coming after the harsh Stalinist years and the forced conscriptions of the Second World War, means that long memories of suffering have shaped the country’s psyche.

But it didn’t stop there. Immediately after 1991 and the declaration of post-Soviet independence, Tajikistan was plunged into a five-year civil war (1992 – 97), broadly between Islamist and secular-nationalist factions. Throughout 2010, Islamist militants unleashed bloody incidents. During the war in Afghanistan that ended in 2021, French troops were stationed in the country and Russia still has a military base near the capital Dushanbe. Then, in 2022, a fierce border conflict broke out along the Kyrgyz border. Rather remarkably, vigorous diplomatic initiatives between the two sides led to a quick resolution of the conflict and, indeed, a long-term agreement that produced a signed intergovernmental treaty on border restrictions and demarcation.

All this to say that it is no wonder that stability and order trump all other concerns in the minds of Tajiks and at the highest levels of government. Yes, the same man, President Emamoli Rahmon, has ruled the country since 1992. Yes, it is true that long Islamic-style beards are outlawed. Any number of criticisms abound about the country’s speech policy and laws. But nestled between Afghanistan and China, and carrying long and fresh memories of turmoil, it is unclear how Tajikistan could easily emulate Western norms of civil society without risking instability, at least for now.

We should bear in mind that one of the most successful states in Asia, Singapore, essentially sacrificed political life for economic success for a few decades. Much to the shock of the West, it has become a kind of alternative model of development, known as the “Singapore model,” in which stability through prosperity offers the kind of unity that then allows political freedoms. Nor should we forget that other models of success, such as South Korea and Taiwan, spent decades alternating between unrest and discipline before reaching equilibrium. That said, it is interesting to note that the Tajik variant has a somewhat different priority of emphasizing identity, history and culture as the first stage towards unity. To this end, they have chosen as their core identity a historical tradition that emphasizes pre-Iranian Persian traditions beginning with the Sarazmians in the 4th millennium BC, the first recognizable indigenous group of Tajik territory. From there, Tajik identity is traced through the Sogdians and Samanids to their cultural models Ferdowsi, Ibn Sina (Avicenna), Omar Khayyam and Rumi.

What you will note about these names is that they trace a legacy of mild and secular Islam combined with poetry, mysticism and science originating in Central Asia – in contrast to the primarily religious identities of states such as Afghanistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Ferdowsi wrote the epic poem The Shahnameh as a way of preserving pre-Islamic Persian myths and culture at the height of Arab Islam’s power in what is now Iran. You all know Rumi for his Sufi mystic poetry. Omar Khayyam, a scientist, astronomer and mathematician, gained fame as a kind of religious skeptic and intellectual in his famous poetry. Avicenna became known in the West for his important medieval contributions to philosophy and medicine. All have in common a liberal thought not rooted in religion – a wise path for a country wishing to avoid the waves of instability and violence that have swept the region in the name of religious doctrines.

A powerful depiction of Tajikistan’s vision unfolded in New York on May 22, 2025 in a dazzlingly immersive projection, a kind of son et lumiere extravaganza, dramatizing the country’s luxurious sense of identity and its building blocks. The show was, in fact, an elevated and uplifting fugue of cultural diplomacy. Generally such events where diplomats introduce the virtues of their country tend to inhabit the rather pedestrian path of speeches and polite applause. Instead, here a mesmerizing narrative was projected on a giant wall, with voice, music and bright images of fascinating landscapes and cultural heroes (the ones mentioned above), expressing a kind of live pride night, celebrating the Tajik contribution to the world and its achievements. The bright national costumes, the ancient sites, the elaborate dances are all presented in a scale of multiple life sizes, subliminally conveying how it feels to live in a land of vast mountains and great nature.

One remembered how Italy saw itself during the Renaissance, as a country of culture and art. Similarly, the evening had elements of a son et lumiere show under the night sky at the Egyptian pyramids, a regular feature for many years. The desert wind, a wandering spotlight on the constructions, moody music, all with the eternal time of the stars looking up at the ancient heritage of pharaonic history. As with Egypt, so with Tajikistan, the thrilling evening acquired a sense of identity rooted in myth and allure, a stream of consciousness rather than facts and figures. This is, after all, how we think of Tibet, as a confusion of consciousness, a place in our imagination.

That said, economic growth has, until now, been a necessary condition for stability in a continent of relatively young states that are finding their way. It is interesting that Tajikistan does not lead with this economic promise like Singapore, Taiwan and others like Lee Kwan Yew, President of Singapore for many decades. These are, after all, Chinese-influenced cultures with long-standing trade traditions as fundamental to identity. Tajik authorities certainly do not ignore this dimension as an incentive for stability, but interestingly they give priority to the spirit of the place, what the Romans called “Genius Loci”. However, the financial promise is there.

In the same way that other countries are sitting on oil or natural gas, the Tajiks are sitting on vast reserves of minerals and especially water in an area desperate for the commodity. Water as an energy source for electricity will become a huge asset as the demands of artificial intelligence create increased demands around the world. Meanwhile, Tajikistan’s economy is booming, growing more than 25 percent in five years, according to World Bank data, with mining a strong driver for investors, accounting for about 53 percent of total FDI. Being the closest neighbour, China’s investment outstrips the others – at 61%, surpassing the US and Russia combined. The country’s turmoil seems to be firmly in the past. The goal now is to establish its sense of identity around the well-being of the building.