Is the Northern Lights dangerous? Experts reveal the dark side of Auroras

Is the Northern Lights dangerous? Strong geomagnetic storms in May and October brought intense displays of the aurora borealis across the United States as far away as Arizona and Florida. May’s was the strongest for probably hundreds of years. What’s going on?

There’s a lot of fear online about the sun’s activity as it reaches its (perfectly natural) solar maximum – an event that happens once every 11 years – but rest assured that viewing the Northern Lights is completely safe for observers. They appear hundreds of miles up in the atmosphere and pose no threat to people below.

But electrically charged particles produced during geomagnetic storms can damage infrastructure — and experts are growing concerned.

Northern Lights Warning: Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

Space weather is divided into two major events on the surface of the sun that can have consequences for Earth – solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Both are on the rise this year because the sun is now in its solar maximum period.

Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation that usually erupt from sunspots on the sun’s surface and travel at the speed of light. If they head for Earth, they arrive in just over eight minutes and trigger a geomagnetic storm. Small incidents regularly cause radio outages for mariners and shortwave radio users, which can cause radio outages. “The big impact of a solar flare is usually on GPS systems on the order of a minute, which is generally not a huge problem,” Andy Gerard at the New Jersey Tech Center for Solar-Eddy Research said in an interview. “Pilots have backup means to land, take off and operate the plane.”

Coronal mass ejections are huge clouds of magnetic fields and plasma that shoot out into space at speeds of up to 3,000 kilometers per second. They usually follow in the wake of a major solar flare. A CME can cause a geomagnetic storm if it is headed toward Earth. It can change the shape of Earth’s magnetic field to create spectacular aurora displays. “A coronal mass ejection lasts two or three days, so we have time to prepare, but it could easily miss Earth,” Gerard said.

Infrastructure damage occurs when a solar flare or CME is particularly strong. That’s what happened last May, when a “halo CME” saw several CMEs traveling at different speeds reach Earth at the same time.

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Northern Lights Alert: A Night in May

May’s G5-rated geomagnetic storm wasn’t as strong as it could have been, but it had unexpected consequences. In addition to stressing SpaceX’s Starlink broadband internet satellites, the increase in charged particles has affected GPS satellites, compromising the accuracy of critical GPS navigation systems used in modern agriculture.

“GPS receivers work when a signal is received at regular intervals, like a beat from a metronome, from an orbiting satellite.” he said Tim Marquis, senior product manager at John Deere. “During solar storms, this signal hits a ‘fog’ of charged particles and can be lost. And the machines can’t know exactly where they are thanks to this interference.”

Cue NOAA’s Aurora – 30 minute forecast it is designed not to help aurora hunters but those who oversee the infrastructure that needs protection.

May’s event may have been relatively strong, but it was nothing compared to what could happen. Solar superstorms involving planet-wide auroras are rated as once-in-a-century events and, as luck would have it, have yet to occur in modern times. The three major solar storms in human history all occurred in quick succession – in 1859, 1872 and 1921 – now more than a century ago.

Northern Lights Alert: Carrington Event

The most intense solar storm was the so-called “Carrington Event” on September 2, 1859, when astronomer Richard C. Carrington observed a burst of white light from the sun for about five minutes. It was the most significant solar flare ever recorded, an X45, and later produced global auroras. However, it caused little trouble in pre-industrial society, other than electrocuting telegraph operators. “As far as we know, it was one of the biggest storms to hit Earth in the last 200 or 300 years,” Gerard said. “There is news at the time when the aurora was almost a universal phenomenon.”

In the past, a massive once-a-century solar storm could happen without incident, but a solar storm of similar intensity right now could have profound effects. The most compelling evidence is what happened in Quebec, Canada in 1989 when a solar storm knocked out the power grids. “Back then, the power grid was more sensitive because it was more interconnected,” Gerrard said. “If one area collapsed, other grids would pick up that load.”

During this event, there was a power surge from the grid in the northeastern US that caused the transformers to fail simply because the load was much greater than expected under normal conditions. “Since 911, many networks, not only in the US but around the world, have fast disconnects, so if the load is too high going from one network to another, they will disconnect immediately,” Gerrard said. “You won’t have that exhaustion.”

Northern Lights Warning: What Happens Now?

If there was a giant solar storm now, local grids would go down but would likely be fixed within a day or two. “You can bring in transformers, repair equipment and repair crews from other areas,” Gerrard said. However, this could be impossible during a repeat of a Carrington Event-scale solar superstorm.

A study published by Lloyd’s of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research in 2013 suggested that a massive Carrington-strength solar storm could cost $2.5 trillion, with effects lasting more than a year. A major event could even affect the Internet’s vast network of undersea cables.

“You won’t just lose a power grid. you’re going to lose power grids all over the world,” Gerrard said. “Where will we meet again? Where do we find spare parts? Where will we find transformers? How do we repair the power grid? How do we repair transatlantic cables, communication — you name it.’

Are we set for another Carrington Event? “Every country is a little lost and unprepared for these kinds of scenarios,” Gerrard said. The chance of “the big one” happening is slim, but we know from the geological record that they are inevitable. “They are more common than a near-Earth asteroid,” Gerrard said. “There will be one in the next 200 years.”

Northern Lights Alert: The Challenge For Forecasters

“It’s always a challenge for us because everyone loves the northern lights, and the bigger the storm, the further south it’s visible,” said Bill Murtagh, Program Coordinator for the National Oceanic and. Space Weather Forecast of the National Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in an October press release.

The problem is that space meteorologists have to rely on models for most of the two- or three-day journey that CMEs make from the sun to Earth. How fast does the CME travel? Is it actually headed for Earth? Meteorologists only have real-time data when the CME hits NASA’s DSCOVR and ACE satellites about a million miles into Earth orbit. They measure the speed and magnetic intensity of a CME, which is critical to calculating how the solar wind is going to change. Depending on the speed of the CME, satellites get just 15-30 minutes’ warning of a major space weather event — and the resulting aurora displays.

Murtagh knows everyone is excited about the aurora, but “at the same time, we can’t hope for these big screens because they threaten our critical infrastructure,” he said. “We should always be careful what we wish for.”

I wish you clear skies and open eyes.