PEITZ, GERMANY – OCTOBER 29: An elderly woman looks at the coal-fired Jaenschwalde lignite power … [+]
Regulatory mandates – including one to phase out coal power – could help create a series of “positive tipping points” to reduce emissions and decarbonize, according to a new analysis.
THE report by researchers at the University of Exeter, in collaboration with the Climate Group, outlines how certain policies could trigger tipping points while accelerating the global economy’s transition away from fossil fuels.
It also calls on countries to work together to accelerate the development of clean technologies to reduce costs and enable them to move beyond fossil fuels in all major emissions sectors.
The researchers looked at four main sectors – electricity, heating, light road transport and heavy road transport.
The recommended mandates include phasing out coal power by 2035 in developed countries and by 2045 in developing countries.
According to the analysis, this would help accelerate the move to the next tipping point, when new solar with battery storage costs less than just the operating costs of the existing coal or natural gas plant
The report also recommends requiring an increasing proportion of car sales to be zero-emission vehicles, reaching 100% by 2035, and a commitment to require an increasing proportion of heating appliance sales to be heat pumps, also reaching 100% by 2035.
According to the researchers, these regulatory mandates would also have a negative effect, accelerating change in other areas as well.
University of Exeter Professor Tim Lenton said the “only really credible way” to keep global temperature rise to less than two degrees this century is through “radically accelerated action” in an online press conference.
“We really wanted to sort out the possibility that tipping points could break down in a good way, not just within this sector or between states, but in a way that could encourage tipping in other sectors,” Professor Lenton said.
“Mandates are clearly the most effective policy approach and we call on policymakers around the world to implement them with speed,” he added.
“Failure will have a high human and financial cost.”
Lead author Dr. Femke Nijsse said the zero-emissions mandate for cars showed the best potential to be a “super leverage point” in terms of a global transition.
For example, Dr Nijsse said the mandate could also boost the growing market for second-heat electric car batteries, which could be used for other purposes, such as grid storage.
“If you implement all these policies together at the same time, you can gain additional emissions savings,” he said during the press conference.
“And we concluded that this savings would be 2.5% when you do everything, instead of each sectoral transition at a time, and that is equivalent to Vietnam’s total current carbon emissions.”
Co-author and director of the non-profit S-Curve Economics, Simon Sharpe, said governments often say the most effective way to reduce emissions is through a carbon pricing system, which taxes greenhouse gas emissions.
But Sharpe added at the news conference that the study shows that regulations in the form of clean technology mandates are “significantly stronger.”
“Governments should not simply assume that carbon pricing will be the best, if anything the opposite is likely to be the case,” he explained.
Commenting on the report’s findings, Vic Shao, CEO and founder of DC Grid, said the battle for lower cost of generated energy has now been won by solar and energy storage in most parts of the world in an email.
“You can make policies and regulations to phase out coal, but in general, the problem will only be solved by pure economics,” Shao added.
“The next frontier is energy delivery – routing generated electricity to loads efficiently and quickly.”
