As invoices begin. What will they do for drug prices and availability?

Trump’s administration simply imposes invoices on China, Mexico and Canada with a message: This is not a trade, this is fentanyl. Fentanyl is a deadly scourge, but as I wrote earlier, AI can now “land” drug production, so what then? Also, few details describe the parameters of what is happening on April 2, when mutual invoices can be kicked to bring medicinal products manufactured to India in the mixture that could increase the bets to a completely different level.

The American audience has no transparency Regarding the origin of their medicines and the assumption that their medicines come from domestic producers is largely inaccurate. The US supplies’ drug chain is extremely globalized and complex, with 80% of the ingredients of drugs derived from abroad. China only operates 230 (13%) active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production facilities for the US market. (A 62% of API production facilities They are also offshore.)

Trump’s administration supported the goal of returning the drug to the US. And recent steps such as the Eli Lilly announcement for a $ 27 commitment to the construction of four new US production facilities to make weight loss and diabetes injectable and innovative research in new drug development are significant. But this commitment does nothing to cope with the critical need for general and especially antibiotic production today.

General drugs, which account for about 90% of all prescriptions distributed in the US, will be particularly vulnerable to these invoices. About 50% of general drugs consumed in the US, including cancer treatments, antibiotics and anticoagulants, are produced abroad, at lower production costs.

In the short term, due to US dependence on foreign production, specific Predict that invoices will increase drug prices in the coming months. While the complete impact may take some time to implement due to existing contracts and stocks, price increases is expected to be significant. Predict about seven in ten experts The cost of drugs will grow by at least 10%.

As China responded quickly retaliation In selected American imports, these actions could if applied to constructed medicines Increase the cost of prescription drugs and exacerbate existing drug deficits. Invoices could probably aggravate existing deficiencies in the US as companies are struggling to absorb the additional costs. Some may interrupt certain products or reduce production, leading to supply chain disorders and possible shortages of critical drugs.

Invoices could likely have extensive effects on the pharmaceutical industry and the healthcare system. Decreased profit margins for drug manufacturers could lead to reduced investment in research and growth, and increased pressure on healthcare providers will force insurers to reduce drug coverage and increase their out -of -pocket costs to maintain them.

Reminder of storage

Recalling the realities of COVID-19, any imposed invoices are likely to lead to accumulation Behavior in the pharmaceutical industry in multiple supply chain levels. This behavior is due to concerns about the possible lack of drugs, expectations to increase drug costs and the desire to ensure the continuous care of patients at hospital and pharmacy levels. It is logical to assume that drug distributors and manufacturers can also participate in storage -like behaviors, such as raw materials that store raw materials and APIs to alleviate supply chain disorders and increase the inventory of finished products.

Behavior from hospitals, pharmacies and people It leads to an artificial lack of certain drugs, deterioration of existing deficiencies or creating new ones. As some drug stock entities, it can lead to an imbalanced distribution, leaving certain areas or facilities with insufficient commissions. The warehouse can increase prices due to reduced availability and increased demand. In extreme cases, this leads to speeds, making drugs less affordable and affordable for patients. The accumulation of large -scale disrupts the normal functions of the supply chain, making it difficult for manufacturers and distributors to predict and accurately satisfy demand.

Save large quantities of drugs increases the risk of drugs that expire before they can be used, leading to waste and financial losses. As supplies are concentrated in the hands of the warehouses, patients who really need some medicines have difficulties in acquiring them. May have the behavior of accumulation in a country Effects of ripple on global supply chainPossibly by affecting access to drugs to other nations, especially in countries with lower and medium income.

It is important to note that while storage can provide short -term safety for individual institutions, it can contribute to systematic problems in the pharmaceutical supply chain and possibly exacerbate the overall drug accessibility and financial accessibility of patients. As is often the case, those who are more affected by tariffs are the most vulnerable.

It is a critical reality that the US must return to a self -sufficient situation in critical drug production. But any statement That the American people “may have a little short -term pain and people understand” must be confirmed that the pain also faces the ability to correct the long -term consequences of lack of US drug production. This determination must focus on the impact of the availability of drugs, accessibility and economic additions, which is also able to cause severe pain, both in the short and in the long run if a trade war takes place.