Apple can’t risk improving the iPhone 16

Updated December 3: article originally published December 2

With the iPhone 15, Apple is doing its best to make the original vanilla iPhone good enough for those who buy it, but weak enough that anyone looking for a great experience won’t think twice about stepping up to the more expensive iPhone 15 Pro.

Apple needs to build on the iPhone 15 with the iPhone 16, but ensure that any upgrades to the iPhone 16 don’t disrupt the iPhone 16 Pro.

Update: Sunday, December 3: Apple needs to balance the need to create separation between the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro and add enough new features and upgrades to the iPhone 16 to make it as attractive an option as possible. The latter will be served in part by bringing the Action Button from the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max to the vanilla iPhone 16.

Previous leaks about the new UI option they were supported this week with new details on its functionality. The iPhone 16 action button will replace the physical mute control with a capacitive button. Not only would this offer pressure sensitivity, but it could also allow sub-commands to be programmed into directional swipes on the button.

This might not be the only new button added to the iPhone 16. Early reports of the Action Button also highlighted the potential of a shutter button. This would be a physical two-step button that would act like a traditional camera shutter button — a half-press to lock focus and a full-press to take the photo. Unlike the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max, the Capture Button is set to debut across the portfolio, though Apple still has time to change the final design of any of the 2024 iPhones.

There is a certain amount of irony in Apple – with its customer-first focus – working to limit its vanilla iPhone models. Since the introduction of the iPhone Pro level, there has been a constant tension to make these phones different, while still being quintessentially Apple. In recent iterations, you can see the vanilla iPhone getting far fewer updates and upgrades and less emphasis and placement on the keynotes.

While the iPhone Pro roars ahead, Apple is dragging its heels to subtly limit the iPhone. This process is set to continue with the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro.

First is the screen. Apple is set to use 60 Hz refresh for the next iPhone. The comparable Galaxy 23 from Samsung and Pixel 8 from Google all hit 120Hz refresh rates. These faster refresh rates for more fluid scrolling, improved graphics in gaming and better readability. Display analyst Ross Young doesn’t expect a faster refresh to reach vanilla iPhone displays until late 2017.

Then you have the choice of the processor inside the iPhones. Apple has been designing its own silicon for many years. While it was once considered a virtue to have every iPhone—even the iPhone SE—running the same system-on-chip, that moment has passed. Declining performance gains on lower iPhone models is the new normal.

There is a separation between the A16 of the iPhone 15 and the A17 Pro of the iPhone 15 Pro. What’s up with the 2024 headphones?

Could Apple take the A17 Pro chipset and not bring it back a year in the iPhone 16? It could offer the supposed A17, a downgraded chipset indicated by the lack of the Pro moniker. It would be an upgrade to the A16 (and easily sold as such), but with the A18 Pro slotted into the newer iPhone Pro models, you’ve once again widened the performance gap between the two halves of Apple’s portfolio.

Finally, you have the camera. Photography has become the de facto battleground between manufacturers to prove they have the best hardware and software.

Take an example about specification transfer. Supply chain reports highlight that the iPhone 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max push the optical zoom to a 5x telephoto lens via their quad-prism lenses. There is no indication that this will come to the iPhone 16. If you want the best camera, then you need the best iPhone. Apple’s choices show that the iPhone 16 will not be the best iPhone.

Vanilla iPhones, like the current iPhone 15 and the upcoming iPhone 16, command a premium price (the iPhone 15 with 128GB of storage is $799). Looking at other phones in the $799 price range, you can see 120Hz refresh on displays, stronger optical zoom, and higher-end camera lenses and chipsets being used. If the competition can achieve these specs, it’s disappointing that Apple can’t do the same.

This means that these vanilla iPhones not only offer the iPhone Pro to those who need a premium experience, but with weaker components purchased on a mass scale, the bill of materials will decrease. Apple has also ensured that there is market segmentation and those who shy away from the high price of the iPhone Pro models can find relief with the relatively low cost of the vanilla iPhone.

The delicate question now is what happens to the vanilla iPhone when Apple updates the iPhone SE in early 2024. That’s a bit of a weird spec sandwich.

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