Mexico has been the top US export market for four of the past five months, coming close to ending Canada’s remarkable run as the country’s top trading partner for US exports.
ustradenumbers.com
Mexico will rank as the top market for US exports in 2025, breaking Canada’s stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking for at least 34 years and possibly dating back to World War II, perhaps longer.
In addition to being the top US export market, Mexico will also finish first in total US imports and, by extension, total trade, cementing its position as the country’s dominant trading partner as the three countries prepare to undergo a mandatory review of the USMCA.
No country has ranked first for all three since 2006, the last year Canada did so, according to my analysis of the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data. This data goes back 34 years. Canada topped the trade trifecta from at least 1992 to 2006.
While Mexico is likely to break its own record for total trade, set last year at $839.89 billion, it will likely fall short of Canada’s record for annual U.S. exports, set in 2022 at $354.99 billion, and China’s record for U.S. imports, set in 2018 at $538.51 billion.
It can break the record for total trade without setting new highs for exports and imports because its trade is more balanced than the US’s trade with China, but with enough imports that far exceed Canada’s.
USMCA Mandatory Review
The USMCA review, scheduled to begin next summer but already underwayit becomes even more important as Canada now ranks second for US imports, ahead of China, as well as second for exports and total trade. Combined, Mexico and Canada now account for 28.37% of all US merchandise.
During his first term, President Trump and his Mexican and Canadian counterparts, President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, respectively, negotiated the USMCA as a replacement for NAFTA, setting out the six-year review. AMLO and Trudeau stepped down and were replaced by President Claudia Sheinbaum and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Sheinbaum has largely avoided Trump’s ire, despite his administration’s aggressive attack on illegal immigration at the Texas border and immigrants living here, as well as his efforts to address fentanyl-related drug overdoses that are also believed to be crossing the border. Carney and Trump have a more contentious cross-national relationship, though the issues have been less substantive, including Trump’s anger over a television commercial.
Expect discussions about the US trade deficit with Mexico to get its share of attention. It is now the second largest of the United States, trailing only the deficit with China. In 2018, the US deficit with Mexico was five times that of China. today, with China having fallen 46.69% since then due to US tariffs on its imports and the deficit with Mexico increasing by 156.29%, it is only 10% less.
US exports to Mexico
Looking at the specifics of the data, Mexico accounted for 15.71 percent of all U.S. exports, with Canada at 15.47 percent and China in third place at 5.08 percent, according to the latest Census Bureau data through September. The October figures were due to be released on December 4, but have been delayed due to the government shutdown.
While this percentage difference may seem small, it is equal to $3.87 billion. The last month Canada ranked No. 1 for U.S. exports was June, when its total was $272.79 million more than Mexico’s. Mexico took the top spot in six of the first nine months this year, including five of the last six.
US exports to Mexico are diverse, with the top five representing energy, technology and automotive.
ustradenumbers.com
The top five US exports to Mexico this year are gasoline and other refined petroleum. motor vehicle spare parts. computer components; computers; and computer chips.
On the import side, Mexico now accounts for 16.17% of all inbound shipments to the US, with Canada at 11.57% and China at 8.49%. Mexico has been the top importer for the past two years, overtaking China.
2025 will also be the first year since 2003 that China’s share of trade with the US will have fallen below 10%.
US imports from Mexico show the strength of the USMCA automotive supply chain, with four of the top five – including insulated wire and cable – linked to motor vehicles.
ustradenumbers.com
The top US imports from Mexico are computers, passenger vehicles, motor vehicle parts, commercial vehicles, and insulated wire and cable. The computer category includes servers used in data farms for the artificial intelligence industry. The other four relate to the highly integrated North American auto industry.
The US relationship with Mexico will become more critical in the coming years as it becomes not only America’s top source of imports and overall trading partner, but, for the first time in decades, its top export market.
