For the remainder of 2025, mortgage rates are not like changing a lot, while new construction and sales of new houses will continue a downward trend.
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During the summer, Moody’s ratings issued a summary and reference About the displacements in the housing market. The analysis examined several versions of businesses and organizations that are a regular report on the traffic market. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Service (FHFA), housing prices in the United States decreased by 0.4% in April since the previous month. This data was released in June. Sales at home also declined by 0.7% in May and decreased by 6.3% since May 2024, according to the UK inventory.
Home builders hold the new construction, as market conditions are slow. Houses and licenses reduce about 6-7% from last year, while the apartment building has also slowed down. And interest rates seem to remain about 6.5%. According to Moody’s, these trends mark the weaker development in the US housing offer for the rest of 2025. I asked the authors of the analysis several questions about the data and market direction.
I mentioned a part of Moody’s document, followed by a question. The excerpt and the question are in oblique letters followed by the answer by the authors of the analysis.
“However, active lists in many other states and markets remain limited compared to predetermined levels, causing even greater prices assessment and limiting the risk that supply exceeds demand in the short term. Higher at national level in recent months.”
Can you edit where this can go based on other variables? If interest rates reduce interest rates, will this market stagnation be broken by people who hold their lower interest rate loans? Will prices be reduced enough to motivate more traffic regardless of rates? Will they both be combined to cause a large increase in demand?
“The uncertainty about the timetable and the rate of possible recovery in existing volumes of housing sales is partially increased due to higher interest rates, but the slowdown in macroeconomic conditions also increases uncertainty.”
“We did not see the increase in the demand for buyer last September, when the 30 -year mortgage interest rate reached 6%, which shows that demand is not likely to change substantially until we violate levels or have a lower performance compared to the country.
Andrew MacDonaldVice -President and Senior Analyst in Moody’s Evaluations (Covering Area includes property stock markets)
“In general, economic access is significantly limited, so a large increase in demand is unlikely in the near future. Both interest rate cuts and home price reductions are expected to be moderate only, so the impact will only be moderate.
“If demand weaken significantly, the likelihood of increasing the reduction of housing prices.
Natalia GloschukVice President and Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s Evaluations (Covering Area includes home builders)
“In the meantime, builders have pulled moderate (see report 5) in response to the softest markets this year.”
Given the likelihood of the demand for the demand caused by lower rates and excessive supply, will we not see increased production? Will the market respond with more family or apartment building? Will there be a delay in production that will increase inflation in the housing market?
“We expect to see an improvement in demand when economic access is improved by both the lower interest rates and the softening of home prices. A significant receipt of demand is not expected, as access is not expected to be significantly improved in the short term, however.”
Natalia Gloschuk
“The slowest initial principles and licenses will contribute to the restraint of any erosion of domestic values, although we expect the new housing prices to decline by a percentage of the middle of this year, compared to the annual drops about 2% in the last two years, as manufacturers are leaning in motivation.
Andrew MacDonald
Where is this point on inflation in the housing market? Do you suggest that in the coming years we will see lower prices? Will not be combined, when combined with lower rates, will it create an increase in demand? If manufacturers are pulling back, won’t see prices go up?
“Builders are pulling a little in response to the weakening of demand, but because economic access is so difficult, manufacturers have been motivated by buyers to encourage market at home in recent years, with this year’s motives higher than before”
Natalia Gloschuk
“There are various factors that are pushing in different directions, so our forecasts were for quite stable values in the coming years.
Jody shennVice President and Senior Analyst of Moody’s Ratings (the coverage area includes MBS in structured funding group)
“If prices weaken further, you can see the sellers simply remove their entries until the market is improved, which reinforces the low offer.”
Andrew MacDonald
