According Cynthia Wanghis director Center for Dispute Resolution and Investigations and clinical professor of management and organizations at the Kellogg School, conspiratorial beliefs are common in times of uncertainty.
“What’s new is that this conspiracy rhetoric has become more mainstream in the conversation around the midterm elections,” Wang says. “We’re seeing candidates inviting fringe conspiratorial communities into their platforms.”
Offers information from her recent research to explain the explosion of conspiracy rhetoric from politicians – and what could be done to dissuade voters from embracing conspiracy theories.
Hooked on Epistemic Junk Food
Many political leaders don’t necessarily believe the conspiracy theories they espouse, but they know that leaning into them can be a strategic way to reach voters who feel out of control over their jobs or personal lives.
“With COVID-19, the election, the war in Ukraine, the economy and inflation, the world is full of uncertainty and people are just trying to figure things out. There is a certain set of leaders who know that language can be used to ease the uncertainty in the world,” says Wang.
Research has shown that in times of uncertainty, politicians who use conspiratorial language are seen as both outsiders who can reform the system and those who can ease people’s uncertainty. But there is a catch.
“The irony is that conspiratorial rhetoric is about [cultivating] uncertainty,” says Wang. “Conspiracy language doesn’t really satisfy your need for certainty, as it may not accurately reflect reality. And consuming it over time is never going to help you feel better or feel more in control.”
Instead, conspiratorial language can start an endless cycle, prompting audiences to be even more receptive to conspiratorial language in the future. And politicians can use this to their advantage. “The fire will continue to burn until the elections. And even after the election, if your team loses, you can use that same type of rhetoric to deal with the uncertainty of your party’s defeat,” he says.
Wang and her colleagues have a term for this self-perpetuating cycle: “epistemic junk food.”
He sees this “junk food” as key to understanding how effectively conspiracy theories like “Stop the Steal” have spread over the past two years. (ONE number of polls suggest that about 35 percent of American voters and about 70 percent of Republican voters suspect voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election.)
What’s new in 2022?
In some ways, the 2022 midterm elections are not unique. Previous research has shown that in times of uncertainty—war, pandemic, faltering economies—conspiracy beliefs and rhetoric soar.
“What’s unique about this year is that rhetoric like this is being incorporated,” says Wang. He points to House Republican Elise Stefanik, who ran Facebook ads warning that Democrats were engaged in a “PERMANENT ELECTORAL REBELLION,” hoping to grant amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants in order to “overturn our current electorate.” That’s it interpreted by many as a nod to the “great replacement” theory espoused by white supremacists.
For political leaders in a highly polarized electorate, conspiratorial rhetoric can be very appealing. Check out the latest baseless conspiracy theories and show your good faith in your base.
“Leaders are motivated to use this language because it’s attractive and it works,” says Wang. “And if they don’t use that language, they can be punished for it. If you say, “Let’s look at the science,” some of your supporters might say, “Boo! Next!'”
He also points out that “social media is being used to spread conspiracy theories quickly and deeply among voters. Ten years ago, you wouldn’t have seen such a rapid spread.”
Modern social media can spread lies faster than other media in the past, and their echo-chamber effects tend to make it more likely that ideas that reinforce pre-existing beliefs and associations – no matter how outlandish – will be believed. Add in the existence of bots designed to harass users and you have a recipe for increasing polarization and further entrenching conspiratorial rhetoric.
“It’s all connected now in one big giant conspiracy theory with 28 different tentacles,” says Wang. “It’s like an octopus of conspiracy rhetoric.”
Slowing support for conspiracy theories
With conspiracy rhetoric not going anywhere anytime soon, Wang and her colleagues hope to identify effective ways to slow down support for conspiracy theories.
“Let’s go beyond trying to rationally convince people to change their minds if they already believe in conspiracy theories. That will be less efficient,” he says. Instead, he wants to reach people before they are exposed to a conspiracy theory and teach them to recognize conspiracy rhetoric when they see it. “We have to get people to say, ‘Hey, let’s look at this information with a critical eye. Let’s look at the facts.”
He also believes that, as a culture, we need to address some of the factors that make people feel out of control—the very things that make conspiracy theories so appealing in the first place.
Some of these factors, such as inflation, are linked to the economy. Other factors are linked to social or political identity. “When a group’s identity and status are threatened,” says Wang, “we see an increase in support for conspiratorial rhetoric. When you feel like your team is losing, then you try to claw your way back. In the process, you may see patterns that support your cause, even if those patterns aren’t supported by much data.
“There’s so much rhetoric out there to choose from,” Wang continues. “People choose the things that reinforce their political identity and how they feel about their groups and themselves.”
Finally, Wang points out that conspiracy theories don’t have to win — at least not forever. People generally support leaders who speak rationally more than those who support conspiracy theories. And support for conspiracy rhetoric is not stable – when one group wins: its support for conspiracy theories falls.
“Conspiracy rhetoric will always be around because it is so persuasive. it draws people in,” says Wang. “if the people feel in control in other waysreduces drag.”
