Vladimir Putin is headed for the fall

Putin is in deep trouble – on many levels. Let’s consider the severity of his predicament, the possible outcomes and possible timelines. Here is my recent interview predicting Putin’s death on a prominent podcast, namely Sebastian Junger’s substack. Junger is a world-renowned war journalist, award-winning author and documentarian. (He also wrote the book The Perfect Storm which became a movie – and a new phrase in our language. I recommend his substack with the greatest enthusiasm.)

Due to Ukraine’s incessant drone attacks, Crimea is effectively cut off from fuel. A multi-mile traffic jam of cars trying to leave the peninsula in peak tourist season makes for a bad sight. The Russians have only one last pipeline for fuel supply: the Kerch Bridge – a highly symbolic piece of architecture, bombed many times but still standing. Petrol trucks passing by will present a ripe target, promising a huge fireball should they be hit in a hit. My Ukrainian intelligence sources tell me that such a strike on a massive scale is imminent.

We all know how the tide has turned in the war in Ukraine, but the visuals matter as much as the reality on the ground. When disasters occur so singularly that neither Putin nor the Russian public can ignore them, reality itself changes. The whole barbaric adventure of Ukraine will look like a disaster. Putin cannot avoid being tarnished. Indeed, when he can’t even control the optics, the effect is multiplied, the clock starts ticking towards its end. Loss of credibility leads to loss of legitimacy in an authoritarian regime.

A Russian military blogger, Aleksandr Lunin, a veteran of the invasion of Ukraine, recently posted a video warning of mutiny and demanding a personal television interview with Putin. He radius secrets he was told by senior officials to pass on to Putin. Last count had 11 million views. Another video softening his stance followed, but this in turn was quickly followed by a supportive video of a group of soldiers threatening to turn their weapons on their torturing officers. Lunin is now in prison. Prighozin’s rebellion comes strongly to the public.

Videos of Ukrainian strikes against military, electrical and fuel facilities both near Moscow and in remote Russian regions are constantly circulating. Crying women, influencers who can’t find gas for their cars are everywhere. Meanwhile, videos are also circulating of men on Russian streets being forcefully pushed into the army. Often with relatives trying to block their captors’ vehicles. Why aren’t law enforcement themselves serving on the front lines is the question on the streets.

Let’s not forget that, historically, regime change has occurred and Moscow’s empire has collapsed twice in the past century due to disastrous foreign military campaigns – World War I and the invasion of Afghanistan.

As pressure mounts on Putin, the elites around him ponder their fate and find people like Aleksandr Lunin to voice their fears. The people can only conclude that either Putin is responsible or the elites around him are preventing him from realizing and correcting the situation. At first they will blame the elites. This is why elites will rebel even before the military does – out of fear.

This column predicted the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 a month ago, and the disastrous result, when most so-called experts and journalists scorned the same possibility.

Putin has a series of failing defenses, the equivalent of praetorian guards. It has its own bodyguard units, including some security militias, such as the FSB, the troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the national guard (Rosgvardia with 300 thousand soldiers) and 30,000 direct bodyguards, the police and the like. He has used them to counter each other over the years. But each also represents a threat, chiefly loyalty to their boss. A civil war between them is a scenario.

The question of how Putin’s end will come about depends rather on the intended outcome. Killing Putin quickly and then fighting for power means neutralizing his threat in the face of any conspirators before the faithful can react. But this also eliminates a crucial option – to hold a show trial and scapegoat him for all the ills of his administration, thereby exonerating others. This allows the system and its elites to remain in place with minimal chaos. One could call it Ceausescu’s choice. In that case, the infamous Cold War-era Romanian despot was swiftly executed (with his wife) by top military officers, while his former elites continued to operate under a nominally democratic system.

That such scenarios are a threat can be gleaned from his recent mysterious death Sergey Ivanovlongtime ally and friend of Putin, on June 26 at age 73. Ivanov was also considered a possible successor for years. He was that rare character at the top who had such strength and impunity that he dared to criticize the situation from time to time. The Kremlin announced his death immediately without giving any cause of death. Ivanov, close to Putin from the 1970s onwards, was removed from official power several times but remained very well connected to the FSB.

This kind of incident creates problems for Putin. As potential opponents are summarily written off, others will see themselves in danger and move against him in anticipation. With paranoia multiplying around him, anything could trigger the end. More dramatic Ukrainian attacks on Moscow. Food shortages. Separatist uprisings in provinces like Tatarstan or Bashkortostan or Chechnya. Ukraine invades Crimea. Above all the actions of China. If Beijing decides that Putin as a weakened leader is a liability to its own interests, it can bring about his downfall in a number of ways. With the cessation of war aid. Moving to Siberia. As it stands, the DPRK is severely limiting its aid to the Russian economy. Already, it has refused to finance the Siberia 2 pipeline directly to China.

Putin’s days are numbered. If the narrative arc persists or worsens, it is likely to be reversed within three years.