The recent elections in Armenia will affect Russia, Iran, the US and the world

You should not be surprised by the amount of international news coverage given to the recent national elections in Armenia. It was a potentially pivotal event on many levels, certainly geostrategically. Not unlike the Hungarian election, the potential domino effect could be large changes for the region and the world. Armenia’s pro-Western incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won with just over half the vote, over 49 percent. Enough to gain control of the government but not enough to secure the necessary supermajority for the major constitutional rewrites he needs to make to fulfill his election promises.

Why does any of this matter to the rest of us? First, Moscow unleashed its full propaganda power to oppose Pashinyan, non-stop disinformation, bot farms, dark money, mass return of pro-Russian immigrants – and clear threats from Putin, “we are living right now everything that is happening in relation to Ukraine, and how did it start? It started with Ukraine’s accession or desire to join the European Union.” In other words, if Armenia were to ally to the west instead of remaining under Russian control, it would suffer the same fate as Ukraine. Despite the pressure and the presence of Russian bases in the country, the people voted in a direction away from Moscow.

Here, then, is the first geostrategic lesson of the election. Unlike the one in neighboring Georgia in late 2012, the vote was not won by a pro-Moscow oligarch — the same oligarch still running Georgia with Russian money — despite all the comparable information wars and threats of conflict and destruction. The world and the region have learned after 14 years how to discount Moscow’s intervention. Witness Orbán’s political advocacy in Hungary. It’s taken so long, but the tide seems to be turning. Ironically, the debacle in Ukraine and the weakening of Putin’s hand probably worked against the Kremlin’s threats.

If Europe remained as indecisive as before, the Armenians would not have supported their confidence from there. But Europe is undeterred in helping Ukraine resist Putin. This gives Armenians courage. Beyond that, of course, there are other, even more powerful considerations. Above all, Armenians see that Donald Trump (rather improbably) has their back, loud and clear. He endorsed the winning candidate: Pashinyan “has my FULL and TOTAL SUPPORT for re-election on June 7, 2026. With Nicole’s help, we will bring the United States, Armenia, the South Caucasus and Central Asia to greater heights than ever before. Make (Armenia) Great Again.”

Which brings us to the second huge geopolitical impact of the election result. Armenia is not just distancing itself from Moscow (while remaining friendly) but moving towards détente with its hitherto greatest enemies, Azerbaijan and Turkey – a remarkable stance given that Armenia lost the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh war against the former with the help of the latter, resulting in 100,000 displaced Armenians. But it was in this war that Moscow failed to help defend Armenia and caused the alienation of its citizens. As President Trump’s quote above shows, this realignment portends change not only in the Caucasus but across Central Asia.

All these countries that until now depended on their trade passing through Russia suddenly have an alternative route to the world through Azerbaijan and Turkey. Their other alternatives were China and Iran. Hold that thought. It was Trump who accelerated the formation of this alternative route by presiding over the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty to create the so-called TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity). Essentially by guaranteeing Armenia’s security in place of Russia.

Now why would President Trump authorize the release of Moscow’s former colonies? Answer – because of Iran. It was the duo of Russia and Iran that geographically bottled up Central Asian trade routes and benefited from transit fees. Now, suddenly, because Armenia helped create the new corridor along with Azerbaijan and Turkey, the wealth and development of these former colonies have alternative options for trading with the world. Already Kazakhstan’s oil has used the truck route. Pipelines will follow soon. Likewise, Russia’s punishment of Armenia through a trade embargo simply doesn’t have the bite.

But back to Iran. And the whole Caucasus. Once the region becomes accessible to American and Western investment and prosperity, Iran’s own integrity is threatened. Here is a short one report about how Azeri oil will use the alternative corridor and also act as a conduit for Kazakh oil to the world. As Iran’s Azerbaijan province sees its cousins ​​prosper across the border in Azerbaijan, the pull of secession will grow. This possibility will distract Iran from its focus southward into the Middle East, which is why Israel has supported Baku over the years – precisely to create this threat. Indeed, the flow of oil from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through Armenia and Turkey will provide an alternative to Hormuz, thus neutering Iran’s biggest geopolitical lever.

Beyond that, a region that prospers away from Moscow and Tehran will put pressure on previously staunchly pro-Putin zones like Georgia and Chechnya. So far, Tbilisi has remained out of the tensions created by the Ukraine war, as its de facto ruler, Bidzina Ivanishvili, has developed a Russian background money to keep the country on Moscow’s side. But Russian money is weak on the ground these days. As for Chechnya, Moscow ended two Chechen wars by obliterating the country’s capital with air power and installing an allied regime. But the Kremlin’s military resources have been so depleted by Ukraine that it can hardly control any future instability in Chechnya.

There are of course spoilers in this anti-Russian scenario. First, Pashinyan needed a supermajority to override existing constitutional mandates that stand in the way of a recession — mandates requiring the return of territories disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, for example. Any practical step he takes in this direction will be swayed by Russian-backed propaganda that he is selling out the country and its security. Already the Kremlin is blasting the Armenian Internet with claims that Pashinyan did indeed lose the election. Nor is the world entirely impervious to such campaigns, as evidenced by the victory of a pro-Putin populist in April’s Bulgarian national election. The new leader in Sofia, Rumen Radev, has just stopped all Bulgarian military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, while Israel is fully behind Baku, it has strong problems with Erdogan’s anti-Israel policy and could act as a spoiler.

However, Pashinyan now has formidable regional support with trillions at stake for his neighborhood and beyond. Much of this depends on the next President of the United States.