5 Basic weather components that led to floods of Texas

It’s been a week since the devastating flood at Texas Hill Country. At the time of writing death exceeded 120 people with about 170 missing. As the tragedy unfolds, important questions are raised about the lack of real -time warning system, because some infrastructure is in a well -known flood and obstacles with the dissemination of weather warnings available. If this was a plane crash, the National Transport Security Council will investigate what happened. There is no such function for weather disasters, although many colleagues have requested this ability over the years. In the light of this vacuum, here is a distribution of five basic meteorological ingredients that contributed to the floods of Texas.

As I wrote last weekend, the Noaa weather forecast center pointed to the possibility of a heavy rain event in this area as early as June 30, 2025. On the same day 3 to 7 American weather prospects (map above), a heavy rain area in West 20.

I teach a lesson at the University of Georgia called Mesoscale and radar meteorology. In this class, one of the most important units focuses on identifying and predicting extreme rainfall events. In 2011, my colleagues and I published a paper Determination of meteorological agents that led to the floods of Atlanta in 2009. Like the floods of Texas, this was caused by an “unfortunate perfect storm” ingredients.

Moisture

Moisture is one of the most important ingredients and there were many. The National Meteorological Service wrote on July 2, 2025, “an important tower of deep tropical humidity continues to flow north to southern-centric Texas, characterized by unusual wet water values ​​as high as about 2.4 inches.” Calling water is a tool used by meteorologists to indicate how deeply the moisture tank is in the atmosphere. Studies They have shown that the extremely high prices of Pwat are an essential indicator of the potential flood. The forecasts saw this opportunity in Texas on the days preceding the tragedy. The satellite estimates (presented on the map above) show moisture flows that flow north to Texas even in the days after July 4.

There were other sources of moisture. The remnants of the Barry Tropical Storm, the second storm of the Atlantic era, was a source of moisture after reaching land in Mexico. In addition, a weakening of the former Hurricane Flossie in the eastern Pacific basin may also have provided moisture as Weather Meteorologist Jen Carfagno pointed out a recent episode of Weather Geeks podcast. All of these factors produced levels of moisture record in the area.

Increasing movement and convergence

Other key ingredients needed for extreme rainfall are increasing movement and a focusing mechanism to climb the air. The NWS discussion on the day before rainfall noted: “The axis of a negative mid-level slope, easier to appear in 700MB analyzes, begins to move to the Edwards plateau, leading to shower rounds throughout the south-centric Texas in tomorrow, There was also a rotating feature known as Mesoscale Convement Vortex which also contributed to both of these ingredients. MCV is a dynamic rotating feature that can enhance rainfall and thunderstorm. The Group of Rainstorm Systems at State University of Colorado is discussing MCVS on their website. Have shown out“Long heating in a large complex of deep wet transport will often produce a cyclone turbine at the middle level — generally known as Mesoscale Convement Vortex.

Texas Hill’s country mainly affected the runoff as the rain has fallen to the surface. However, when I ever see any type of elevated soil, my meteorological instincts are known to be considered any “orographic” push of hills or mountains. The mountains were probably a factor in enhancing lifting during Hellne Hurricane, for example.

Slow motion

Another factor in flooding events was the speed (or lack of them) of the storm system. This particular system was slow. In fact, flood warnings remained for the area on the days after the initial tragic event of rain. Whenever a system of any type of bench in an area or is too slow to move, a rainfall is likely. Harvey (2017) was sitting in southeastern Texas for days. Hurricane Florence (2018) and its remains remain and caused significant floods in all Carolines. A low cut sat west of Georgia for days of moisture in Atlanta during the 2009 floods. Over 200 people died in the Spanish floods of 2024. Low cut It was an important factor.

Hot waters

Another aspect of this event that can be overlooked is the warm waters of the vagina. They had a direct impact on the brief development of the Barry Tropical Storm. However, I want to identify a secondary effect. The warm waters of the vagina also reinforce the moisture source for the atmosphere because they tend to be associated with higher evaporation rates. Exhaust is a mechanism for moisture moisture from water to the atmosphere.

Rainfall

In general, the duration of rainfall and how fast it falls determines how bad floods it will be. In this storm, especially during the initial event, the rates of rain from time to time were 2 to 4 inches per hour. This is very much the rain that falls in a short period of time. Now a couple who with all the complex soil and the relatively retarded system. In the context, the mass floods in New York were caused by the remains of the Hurricane IDA (2021). Over 3 inches of rain shake down In an hour through Central Park.

My doctoral studies at Florida State University explored how effectively the sea breeze and outflow storms turn atmospheric humidity into rainfall. The moisture of the middle level and the depth of convergence were critical factors in the effectiveness of rainfall of these storm types. Unfortunately, the Texas thunderstorms had suffered, the deep humidity lifted into the system.

Although there was a lot of chatter and merger, sowing clouds was probably not important or even a minimum factor for the reasons discussed in my previous article. Professor of Texas El Paso, Tom Gill, said perfectly, “sowing clouds is like a race, trying to light a rock with him (without water vapor) is useless and the lighting of a fight in a burning hell (very wet atmosphere).