US auto exports to China at 16-year low

US passenger vehicle exports to China are at a 16-year low, down 58.27% in just one year and 78.42% since 2017, the year before President Trump launched the ongoing trade war with China.

Many of these exports are affected Mercedes-Benz SUV built in nearby Alabama that departs from the Port of Brunswick, Georgia, the nation’s busiest port for vehicle exports.

For China, it looks like another precision retaliatory move against Trump’s more sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, first imposed in 2018.

Its share of exports to the US fell from 8.33% in 2024, trailing only Canada (26.23%) and Germany (13.40%), to 4.07% by October 2025 and 2.17% in October.

In October, in addition to Canada and Germany, it lagged behind Mexico (8.60%), the United Arab Emirates (4.93%), South Korea (4.40%), Saudi Arabia (3.06%), the country of Georgia (2.90%) and Nigeria (2.28%).

China’s most high-profile retaliation against U.S. tariffs was to eliminate all purchases of U.S. soybeans from June to October last year — an unprecedented five-month extension, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data, through October.

Because China traditionally buys more than half of U.S. soybean exports, the Trump administration recently announced a bailout similar to the one announced during his first term, although, for now, it is significantly smaller.

In passenger vehicles, China cut its purchases from the United States from $4.41 billion through October 2024 to $1.84 billion in the same 10 months of 2025, a drop of $2.57 billion. The decrease from 2017, when the total through October was $8.53 billion, is $6.89 billion. The last time the total fell below $1.84 billion was in the first 10 months of 2009, when the total was $753.58 million.

This comes as the United States and China take different paths for their automakers and citizens.

Since starting his second term a year ago, Trump has done incentives are eliminated for electric vehicles; mileage standards are reset for vehicles due to take effect in 2031, the so-called CAFE standards; and he placed his bet on the future of diesel and internal combustion engines. Consistent with this, Trump withdrew the United States from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, an umbrella organization under which the best-known Paris climate agreement is based.

China is moving in a different direction.

China has mandated the manufacture of electric vehicles 40% of all sales by 2030. He also plans pull the subsidies but for a completely different reason: Oversupply. Electric vehicles, hybrids and other “new energy vehicles,” or NEVs, made in China now account for 50% of sales there. It also exports about a quarter of the electric vehicles it makes, led by BYD.

The Chinese manufacturer is now very visible in the automotive sector, mainly due to BYD and other Chinese EV manufacturers. BYD, could surpass Ford in the near future to rank third behind Toyota and Volkswagen for total passenger vehicle units sold worldwide.

Additionally, Canada, historically one of the staunchest allies of the United States, announced earlier this month that it would accept 49,000 electric vehicles from China without a 6.1% “most-favoured-nation” tariff, the number of eligible vehicles eventually rises to 70,000 in the deal’s fifth year. Canada produces about 1.8 million cars a year, Prime Minister Mark Carney said, trying to calm fears about the domestic auto industry.

He is, however, one person in a relationship whose dispute erupted openly at the World Economic Forum this week.

In 2024, in conjunction with the United States and President Joe Biden, Canada had imposed 100% tariffs on cars from China, effectively an embargo.

Mexico, the United States’ top trading partner, recently raised tariffs on Chinese EVs from 20% to 50%. BYD builds in Mexico, as well as other parts of the world, to avoid tariffs as foreign automakers do in the United States, mostly in the South to avoid working with a unionized workforce.

This list of foreign manufacturers in the United States includes Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda, Hyundai, Kia, BMW, Volkswagen, Chinese-owned Volvo and, of course, Mercedes-Benz.

Then there is the port of Brunswick in Georgia.

For the past six years and 13 of the past 14, it has led the country in exports of passenger vehicles (HS 8703) to China, accounting for a growing percentage. The first 10 months of 2025 was 89.38%, for the sixth consecutive year that the percentage increased.

Significantly, in 2024, the Port of Georgia completed $262 million in improvements, adding new storage and processing facilities, as well as 122 acres of Ro-Ro cargo storage.

Cars and other vehicles arrive and depart on ships that allow them to “launch” for imports and “roll” for exports unlike container ships, where the “boxes” are lifted by cranes.

One of the port’s goals in the expansion effort was to replace the Port of Baltimore as the nation’s top port for motor vehicle trade, which it accomplished by 2024. That year, the Port of Baltimore was hampered by the collapse of the Frances Scott Key Bridge.

When border crossings are included, Detroit’s Ambassador Bridge has historically been responsible for the largest passenger vehicle trade by value. While it was back on top by October last year, Brunswick’s total was the highest for the previous three years.

Last year, in the first 10 months of the year, Detroit had captured 11.75% of total exports and imports with Brunswick at 10.59% and Baltimore at 8.73%.

Looking at just the Port of Brunswick’s exports to China, the 52.67% drop is nearly identical to the nation’s decline with China, which is not surprising given its dominance of that trade, as the chart above showed.

For the United States, the slump in China-bound passenger traffic may signal more than a temporary trade hiccup.